Bracketology and Highly Selective College Admissions

How's your NCAA bracket looking?

Confession.

I filled out 8 brackets.

And all of them have been blown to smithereens.

I'm proud to say though I picked Dayton vs. Stanford.

I'm not proud to say I also picked Western Michigan, Louisiana Lafayette, and Western Kentucky.

Which brings me to the correlation between bracketology and highly selective admissions.

We're about to enter the two major 24 hour windows of time where all the #1 seeds reveal their winners and losers...and maybes.

I probably have 68 or so admission decisions pending for my students at those "blue blood" schools.

Enough to fill out a NCAA-like bracket.

And mentally I do it every year. 

I try my best to prognosticate who will win and advance and who will lose and well go somewhere else.

And every year I do about as well in my "highly selective admission bracket" as I do in my NCAA bracket.

There are kids who like Mercer don't beat Duke but get into Duke...and I didn't see it coming.

And there are kids who like Wichita State are undefeated in college admissions right up until April 1st and then they get smeared...and I didn't see it coming.

The reality is that highly selective admissions is simply too unpredictable these days.

The application volume. Plus...

The pressures for greater selectivity (which means lower admit rates and higher yield rates).  Plus...

The institutional agenda.  Plus...

The hidden variables that come into play in making very complex, highly nuanced decisions.

This article is an excellent reminder of what a "crap shoot" highly selective admissions is today.

As Mr. Gould points out in the following article, admission decisions say very little about the student, and much more about the institution making those decisions.

In the end, if a student's application list is balanced, then that student will have some excellent final choices that a majority of 18-year old's would give anything for.

March Madness is certainly my favorite time of year (other than the Masters in April) as a sports fan...but my least favorite time of the year as a college counselor.

But in the end, I'm always surprised how each student ends up where he or she is able to get a great college education.

The Story Behind the SAT Overhaul....Excellent Read

If you want the extended, full disclosure story behind the overhaul of the SAT, then I would invite you to read this article from The Times.

The article raises important questions about standardized testing.

The reality is that standardized testing has simply reinforced the savage inequalities that have existed socioeconomically.

Standardized tests advantage the advantaged.

And disadvantage the disadvantaged.

Scores, in other words, reveal zip codes and income brackets.

Not raw acumen and intellectual ability.

Not to mention intellectual curiosity and creativity and innovation (does any standardized test reveal this?).

Standardized tests are here to stay...at least at 80% of the colleges and universities out there.

It's a $4.5 billion dollar cash cow for the empire called The College Board.

Hopefully though the new SAT will provide ways to create a more even playing field for students.

New SAT 1 Unveiled

I was at the Harvard Summer Institute last June when College Board President, David Coleman, gave us - college deans and counselors - a sneak preview of the radical changes coming to the SAT 1.

Two sections only again.

Scored on the traditional 1600 scale.

An optional essay.  What....optional?

"Real world" vocabulary words.

So fewer words like parsimonious and inchoate.

And more words like synthesis and adaptability.

21st century words, in other words.

Data driven math.

Evidence-based literary analysis.

Less archaic and more relevant literature.

Like MLK's Letter from a Birmingham Jail.

And the Declaration of Independence.

And health care equivalent of free, universal test prep through Khan Academy!

This is a step in good direction....IF colleges and universities are going to continue to use standardized test scores to conquer and divide...excuse me, I mean bolster their ranking status...I mean evaluate the applicant's ability to succeed in their freshman year. 

Nevertheless, I'm not sure if a overhauled test will change the fact that only 42% (according to the College Board) of the US test taking population scored high enough to qualify as "college ready."

That said, I don't foresee the new SAT 1 having a significant impact on the Casady community.

We have steadily seen 15% of our seniors submit SAT I scores to colleges.

85% still prefer and score highest on the ACT.

But it will certainly change the game for our kids in terms of the PSAT...and National Merit.

Here is a link to an excellent article explaining the new SAT 1 that will be fully functional in the spring of 2016.

Interesting in Out-of-State Public U's?

One major trend emerging in higher education involves the rising costs of attending an out-of-state universities.

It's generally understood that non-residents can anticipate paying twice what in-state resident students pay at flagship public universities.

But now public institutions are becoming increasingly "need aware" in the admission process.

At the Harvard Institute this last summer, I heard a number of deans of admission from highly selective public universities flat out say, "We're looking for full pay kids."

Bottom line:  students and families need to become more aware of how "need aware" policies are factoring into admission decisions.

This article sheds light on this emerging trend.  It's worth taking the time to read it.

What is Confounding, Absurd, and Miasmic? Here's a Hint: It starts with a S and ends with P, H, Y

Recently a colleague sent me this article from the Stanford Magazine.

It explored the confounding, absurd, and miasmic underbelly of highly selective admissions.

It's crazy to think that last year at Stanford, for example, as the article points out, that 69% of the applicants who had perfect SAT scores were denied.

800 + 800 + 800 = No Thanks!

This little juicy factoid underscores again that the schools at the top of the food chain have a set of hidden agendas (aka "institutional goals") that drive this admission process.

One of the graphics that I found helpful was this one.

This graph reveals the meteoric rise in applications to the Big 3 + Stanford over the last decade.

As well as the sharp plunge in the admit rate.

Now when any student or family in the future comes to me with ambitions to gain admission to one of these schools, I have a great introductory article to provide them to calibrate their expectations.

Thanks, Stanford.

Early College Acceptances!!!!

For the past week, Casady seniors have been hearing back from colleges and universities that they applied to early

So far our 74 seniors have been admitted to 41 different schools.

This list grows by the day.

In the midst of the most competitive admission cycle in US history, the Class of 2014 has had incredible success among some of the most prestigious technological, research, and liberal arts schools in the US and abroad.

That said, we are proud of EVERY college acceptance that our seniors have received thus far...and to come in the months ahead!

Our mission continues to focus on finding the best college fit for each student.

Click here to see a map of where the Class of 2014 has already found a college fit!

Is your student receiving a college admission decision soon? (revisiting an old post)

(I wrote this blog post last year.  I thought it was worth recycling as seniors enter into the admission results season again!)

It's that time of year again.

Early admission decisions are coming out.

The wait will finally be over.

And reality will come to roost.

I was asked by my headmaster yesterday what the "early forecast" looks like for our students.

Talk about being put on the spot in our administrative meeting.

My response.

The weather doppler shows an early winter mix of snow and sunshine.

Emily Dickinson gave great advice when she poetically waxed:

"Tell the truth but tell it slant."

Metaphors are helpful "slants" (/) to convey hard truths.

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Just today The Choice blog published a post on advice for parents and students who are receiving news from colleges.

Many of my colleagues had excellent insights and anecdotes to illustrate the do's and don'ts.

The story of the mom recording "the moment" and failing to see her daughter sobbing because of the bad news - that's a "parent fail" moment (not that I haven't already had a bevy of fail moments with my 6 year old)


Or the parent who ordered two different Christmas cards.

One with the daughter in her Duke sweatshirt.

The other with her daughter in another outfit.

Truth is stranger than fiction sometimes - isn't it?

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One thing I have to keep in mind is that this is not my moment.

It's not about me.

This is the student's moment.

My job in that student's moment is to try and practice what Harvard professor and theologian Henri Nouwen called the "ministry of presence."

To minister presence simply means being present in the present with the person in my presence.

This is never easy to do.

I have to resist the impulse to "fix" the situation.

I'm learning though that it is OK for things not to be OK.

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All of us deep down hate to see our kids suffer disappointment.

We are a pain aversion society - aren't we?

We're a Happy Meal culture.

We're a Lake Woebegone world where every kid is now well above average.

We don't want to acknowledge that most meaningful success stories are shaped by a trajectory of suffering.

People who end up really mattering to the world are people who end up enduring great suffering to matter to the world.

I'm reading Team of Rivals right now, for example.

I've been amazed in just the first 100 pages by how Lincoln's suffering in his formative years molded his character.

And I've been equally amazed at how Lincoln handled personal loss and political defeat.

He wasn't a Clint Eastwood type.

He didn't just grit it out.

Lincoln grieved it out.

He had unstinting bouts of "hypocondria" that drove him to the edge of despair.

But it's that emotional edge that ultimately gave Lincoln his moral edge.

Lincoln wouldn't have been Lincoln without the personal and political set backs.

One salient thing Lincoln possessed during his lifetime was the ability to navigate those painful moments through story telling and good humor.  

Lincoln found ways in moments punctuated by grave disappointment or ferocious intensity to keep his sanity and perspective by telling a funny, homespun anecdote he gleaned from his father while growing up in the backwoods of Kentucky. 

The film Lincoln illustrates this poignantly when Lincoln tells a crude story about a toilet and portrait of George Washington that had his entire cabinet in raucous fits just moments before they received critical news from the Civil War battle front.

Perhaps there is something we can all glean from Lincoln here.

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Often times the best thing to do when it is bad news for kids is not to say anything all.

"Chicken Soup words" just don't warm the soul.

It's best to do what Jews have done down through the centuries amid suffering.

Call it the ancient practice of just shutting up and being silently with. 

A hug.  Tears.  A steaming cup of hot chocolate with marshmallows bobbing on the frothy surface.

A fun Christmas movie like Elf.

Moreover, it's best for this moment [when the student thumbs open the letter, or clicks on to his or her admission portal] to occur in a private place with supportive people.

It's days or weeks after that I will try to reasonably explain the hidden perils that may have factored into the unfavorable application decision.

Especially at highly selective institutions where the goal is for the admission officer to find a reason not to admit the student.

I often begin by reminding the crestfallen student that the college made a decision on a 10 to 20 minute application review, as well as a set of institutional goals that the student may or may not have fit into as an applicant.

In other words, this college didn't deny you.

They denied your application.

Sometimes the college is denying your application because on page one they saw that you didn't fit a certain geographical demographic or ethnic demographic.

Or you checked off one gender box instead of the other. 

Or that you chose an academic major that is full.

Or that you have a smattering of B's and C's from your freshman year.

Or that you took a freshman level course like Chinese 1 in your senior academic program.

Or that you took Honors US History instead of AP US History. 

Or that your activities chart was too thin.  (They needed more generalist).

Or that your activities chart was too thick.  (They needed more specialist).

Or that you didn't check the "plan to participate in college" box.

Or that your parents didn't attend this particular college.

Or that your test score was "profile negative" by a single point.

There are a myriad of reasons that a student's application is admitted, deferred, or denied that is beyond one's control.

Beyond my control.

Beyond your parent's control.

Beyond some rich alumnus's control.

Just beyond.

And not being able to manipulate the results just plain sucks.

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Life is moments.

And this will be for your student one of those moments.

It's not the ultimate moment.

It's just one moment among many moments that will shape them.

Looking back, I realize now that often the moment isn't about the news.

It's about the person's response.

I also realize that the moment isn't meant to be a solitary event.

It's meant to be a communal moment.

Some moments, in other words, are meant to be shared.  

Any disappointment can be absorbed and overcome in the presence of someone who cares, supports, encourages, and ultimately loves you.

I often remind parents in our first college meeting that a study has shown that a parent has roughly 3000 hours to influence a child.

That's 3000 dots.

No dots are more impacting than dots of love.

For in the end, love is always presence.

Every one of us needs to hear, regardless if we are hearing back from a college, that we are loved simply because.